Projecting Canada's Elder-Care Workforce Needs

As noted in Section I, over the next half century, the share of Canada’s population aged 65 and over is projected to more than double from its current 13.2 percent to 27.2 percent (Statistics Canada, 2005). Although projections are hazardous given potential changes in such factors as age-related disability rates and family-provided care, it seems reasonable to suppose that there will be a substantial increase in the market demand for elder care. As demand grows, the effects on the cost of care and the actual quantities of care provided through the market will depend on how the quantities of care demanded and supplied respond to increases in the price of care. One obvious way to ease the adjustment towards higher demand is to increase the available supply of foreign-born elder-care workers. The purpose of this section is to provide a baseline for considering how many foreign- and native-born care workers might be required. This baseline is based on the assumption that the ratio of elder care workers to older people remains at its current level. We then calculate the number of native- and foreign-born elder-care workers that will be required under three scenarios: all increased demand is met by native workers; a constant foreign-born share in the elder-care workforce; and all increased demand is met by foreign-born workers.

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1 Conclusion 1927
2 Implementing the methodology for Canada 2281
3 How many foreign-born workers are needed? Three scenarios 2534